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Amid the widespread uncertainty surrounding the US strikes on Venezuela, the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “manage” the country and “take back the oil”, one thing is clear – they set a profoundly disturbing precedent.

A Dark Legacy and an Unprecedented Move

The United States possesses a dark record of meddling, military incursions, and control in Latin America, but the early hours of Saturday saw its premier large-scale offensive on the soil of a South American nation. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” Mr Trump declared.

The choice to militarily strike another state and seize its president – only a few days after he stated a desire for negotiations – carries even broader implications. It should alarm us all.

Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have stolen the last election. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has remarked that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and dismissed rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other factions of the leadership-stricken government are considerably more radical.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who came to office promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is converting it into a rogue state.

He believes that the America's power allows it to do as it wishes with little consequence: consider the military actions against Nigeria and Iranian installations. He promises that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this latest episode “will be financially free”.

An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came absent any United Nations mandate or congressional approval; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to shatter them.

Put aside the message this sends to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will likely encourage further adventurism.

The Stated Reason Versus the Real Aims

It is widely rejected the pretext that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently pardoned the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is driven by the allure of petroleum resources as well as personal bravado, the ideology of some in his administration, and the appetite for triumphalism as his support at home declines.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The firm response from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode emphasizes the UN's diminishing clout.

Mr Trump’s voters who oppose foreign entanglements could yet press him to redirect his gaze inward – but soaring healthcare premiums, public anxiety over the economy and distracting files increase his appetite for distraction.

It has been less than 12 months into his four-year term. Other governments may regret it if they fail to speak up today, considering the potential next target.